FIRST RESULTS OF CHD PROGNOSIS STUDY

Aim — to investigate the prognostic value of different risk factors associated with stable angina in a contemporary population of patients,
to identify the key prognostic features, to evaluate the risk distribution and to construct a reliable tool for the risk prediction.

Materials and methods. Prospective observational cohort study, conducted between January, 2004 and December, 2007 in Moscow, Russia. 641 patients were included on the basis of planned hospitalization to National Research Center for Preventive Medicine (Moscow) with a clinical diagnosis of coronary heart disease and performance of coronary angiography. 5 years follow‑up period (median time 3.9 years, min. 0.76 years, max. 6.52 years). 551 patients were followed-up by phone interview, among them: 432 men (78%, (age 57.7 ± 0.4), 119 women (age 60.3 ± 0.7), 354 of them attended follow-up visit and were secondary examined. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression model was used to identify independent predictors of events. Variables were selected in a stepwise forward manner. The probability
of survival was calculated using the Kaplan—Meier method, and survival were compared using the long-rank test.

Results. Annual death rate from all cause was 11.38 per 1000 patient-years at risk. The primary endpoint (combined all-cause mortality, nonatal MI, non-fatal stroke/TIA) was registered in 13.61% of cases, with annual rate of 17.34 per 1000 patient-years at risk. Frequency of the secondary endpoint (cardiovascular adverse events, such as CV death, non-fatal MI, non-fatal stroke/TIA, recurrent angina, endovascular revascularization, CABG) was registered in 36% of all followed‑up cases.

Conclusion. This article describes the first results of PROGNOS IBS study — a comprehensive patient registry. Our data demonstrates the risk factors distribution and morbidity/mortality rates in the contemporary population of patients. A score will be developed to estimate risk probability of death and adverse cardiovascular events.

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